Regarding the Conservatives and their accusations about child-porn

Yes this was a horrible attempt to cash in on the Holly Jones case, which made headlines 2 days ago, and yes it deserves some sort of an apology.

But it is unclear if it will affect the Conservative Party's polling numbers, which are already showing signs of falling (the SES polls which I despise show them dropping 8 points in the past week).

The media and the rest of us have been expecting another Stockwell Day scenario, with the wheels falling completely off of the Conservative Party's election campaign, but so far it has been a fairly well run campaign. Chances are that it will require a follow-up goof-up before the media begins to compare Harper to Day.

This is a high-profile issue, one that is simple for Canadians to understand, and as such it has the ability to ruin the Conservative campaign by itself. But still, I'd bet that the Conservatives can weather this if they put the right spin on it.
The next mistake, however, will spell certain victory for Martin.

It's obvious that the Harper campaign team contains a mixture of former PCs and CAers. The PCs have been responsible for the flawless campaign so far. Yet everywhere Harper goes during this election, he has been sideswiped by the idiotic statements and actions of former Canadian Alliance members. So it's not hard to conclude that the kiddie-porn press releases were the work of former Alliance members.

If Harper is smart, he'll send the CCrappers to the "back of the shop" and let the real Tories run the campaign from here on.